Shots in the Dark

Friday, 04 January

Obama Rising, Romney Going Down

Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee win in Iowa.

I think this is a mixed result for anyone who wants to see a Democrat win this November, for two reasons.

One, Hillary is one Democrat guaranteed to drive Republicans to the polls.

Two, I think Mike Huckabee is a bit of a nut. But he may just be a stronger national GOP candidate than Mitt Romney (obviously, he was the stronger candidate in Iowa). On the one hand, he doesn't believe in evolution; on the other hand, not all of his positions are insane, and some are surprising for a conservative Republican. He's obviously warm and personable, and he doesn't have the Mormon problem.

Here's one frustration I have: If you read some media accounts, you'd basically get the impression that Hillary, John Edwards, and Romney should drop out today. Here's Adam Nagourney in the Times: "Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards...both vowed to stay in the race." And that's in the third paragraph of his piece....

Well...duh. Of course they're going to stay in the race. It's been too close to call for weeks now, and after one caucus, they're going to drop out? Silly.

Here's the Washington Post: With a huge campaign fund and much of the party establishment behind her, Clinton will have significant assets to employ in the coming contests. But Obama also has a massive campaign fund and has already begun to put organizations into the later-voting states in what his advisers have anticipated could be a lengthy and brutal battle in the weeks ahead.

Much better.

The Globe, to its credit, is also more level-headed than the Times. Its main piece on the outcome makes no such pronouncements, and it even runs a news analysis piece saying that history doesn't always bode well for the early primary winners.

I slag the Globe a lot, so I want to give it a big shout-out here for cooler political reporting than in today's Times.

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